Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that split the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
